Bitcoin and a few other cryptocurrencies have surpassed their immediate resistance levels, signalling the start of a relief rally.
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently engaged in a see-saw fight near $40,000, with bulls and bears vying for the upper hand. Volatility may stay elevated as markets await the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on March 16.
According to analyst Willy Woo, Bitcoin may face a capitulation event on a cost basis, a parameter that reflects the movement of Bitcoin from inexperienced to experienced traders. Such precipitous drops frequently herald the emergence of market bottoms.
However, Glassnode feels that a surrender has been avoided due to the market’s ability to absorb the sell-offs. Although 82% of short-term holders’ coins are in the red, Glassnode views this as late-stage bear market behavior, in which investors retain their coins until they become lucrative.
Could the Fed’s policy choice spark a trend in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies? To learn more, let’s examine the charts of the top ten cryptocurrencies.
On March 15, Bitcoin fell below its moving averages, but the lengthy tail of the candlestick signals robust demand at lower levels. Bulls have continued to buy, pushing the price above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($40,151).
If bulls can keep the price above the 50-day simple moving average, the BTC/USDT pair might rally to the upper zone between $45,400 and the ascending channel’s resistance line. In this zone, the bears are expected to mount a strong defense.
If the price reverses from the overhead zone, the pair may remain within the channel for a few more days. Additionally, the flat moving averages and the near-midpoint relative strength index (RSI) signal that range-bound movement is probable in the immediate term.
In contrast to this notion, if the price reverses and falls below the moving averages, this indicates that bears are continuing to sell at greater levels. The bears will then attempt to drop the price below the channel’s support line, resuming the downtrend.
Ether (ETH) has bounced off the symmetrical triangle’s support line, and buyers are seeking to push the price above the 50-day simple moving average ($2,763).
If they are successful, the price may rise to the psychological level of $3,000 and subsequently to the triangle’s resistance line. Bulls must push and hold the price above the triangle to suggest a likely trend change.
Additionally, the RSI has formed a symmetrical triangle, and a breakout from it could indicate that buyers are in control.
This bullish view will become incorrect if the price reverses from the current level and breaks below the triangle’s support line. This might pave the way for a future reduction of $2,159.
The buyers are attempting to push BNB above the moving averages, but the bears are likely to intervene. They will attempt, like they have done on three prior times, to stop the recovery near the moving averages.
Both moving averages have flattened out, while the RSI has surged over 48, indicating that bulls are making a comeback attempt. If buyers continue to push the price over the 50-day simple moving average ($388), the BNB/USDT pair might reach $425 and then $445.
In contrast to this belief, a break below the moving averages indicates that mood is still negative and traders are selling around resistance levels. The bears will then attempt to push the stock below $350, a significant support level.
On March 12, Ripple (XRP) reversed from the downtrend line and fell to the moving averages. While the bulls have successfully defended the moving averages, they have been unable to generate a big rebound off them.
Both moving averages have flattened down and the RSI has approached the midway, indicating that supply and demand are in balance. To gain the upper hand, buyers must push and sustain the price above the downtrend line. The XRP/USDT pair may then surge to $0.91 and then to the psychologically significant $1 level.
On the other hand, if the price declines and breaks below $0.69, the bears will gain the upper hand. The pair could then fall below $0.62, a key support level.
Terra’s LUNA token broke through the $94 overhead resistance on March 14, but the bulls were unable to sustain the gains. On March 15, the bears dragged the price back below $94 per share.
The bears will now attempt to lower the price and sustain it below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($84). If they are successful, the LUNA/USDT pair may fall to $70. This might be interpreted as a sign that the bullish impetus has weakened.
In contrast to this notion, if the price climbs above the current level or bounces off the 20-day exponential moving average, buyers will attempt to bring the price back toward $105. A break and closing above this resistance level may signal the start of a new upswing. The pair may begin by rallying to $115 and then to $125.
On March 14, the bulls drove Solana (SOL) back over the March 13 breakdown level of $81 signalling that the March 13 breakdown may have been a bear trap.
Buyers are seeking to drive the price over the 20-day exponential moving average ($86). If they are successful in doing so, the SOL/USDT pair may rally to the downtrend line. This is a critical level to monitor because a break and closure above it will indicate a possible trend change. The pair might then rally to the barrier level over $122.
This bullish perspective will be refuted in the short term if the price breaks below the 20-day exponential moving average or the downtrend line and falls below $77. This might signal the return of the downturn, extending the pair’s slide to $66.
Cardano (ADA) is aiming to breach the 20-day exponential moving average ($0.85), but bears are anticipated to stage a robust defence at the barrier.
If the price reverses from its present level, the ADA/USDT pair may fall to the pair’s strong support level of $0.74. This is a critical level for bulls to maintain since if it is breached, the pair may fall to the next support level at $0.68.
Alternatively, if the price breaks and closes above the 20-day exponential moving average, the pair may attempt a climb to the psychologically significant $1 level. This level is expected to operate as a significant barrier. If the price breaks through this barrier, the pair may trade range-bound between $1 and $0.74 for several days.
Since March 13, Avalanche (AVAX) has maintained a price below the uptrend line, but bears have been unable to exploit this weakness and drive the price below the immediate support level of $64. This demonstrates a scarcity of sellers at cheaper prices.
Bulls are aiming to reclaim the uptrend line and moving averages. If they succeed, the AVAX/USDT pair may surge to the descending channel’s downtrend line. This is a critical level to monitor because the bears have successfully guarded it four times previously.
If the price continues to decline from the downtrend line, it indicates that the bears are not about to relent. The sellers will then attempt to bring the price back down to $64.
On the other hand, if bulls push the price above the channel, this indicates that the downturn may have ended. After that, the pair may rally to the psychological level of $100.
Polkadot (DOT) has traded near the 20-day exponential moving average ($17) for the last two days, indicating that bulls are buying the dips.
The flattish moving averages and the RSI at the midway indicate that the bears’ hold may be eroding. Bulls are expected to attempt a rally above the $19 overhead resistance level once more.
If they succeed, the DOT/USDT pair may surge to $23, where the bears will likely mount a significant battle. If the price breaks and closes above this level, a double bottom pattern will be completed.
This bullish perspective will be rendered incorrect if the price reverses and breaks below the sturdy support level of $16. This could result in a price reduction of $14.
On March 14, Dogecoin (DOGE) reversed lower from the 20-day exponential moving average ($0.12), signalling that bears are aggressively selling at higher levels.
One minor plus is that the bulls have prevented the price from falling below the solid support level of $0.10. For a few more days, this could maintain the DOGE/USDT pair range-bound between $0.12 and $0.10.
A break and closing above the 20-day exponential moving average could be the first sign that selling pressure is easing. Bulls will then attempt to take the pair over the 50-day simple moving average ($0.13), paving the way for a probable rise to $0.17.
Alternatively, if the price falls below $0.10, selling pressure will likely intensify and the pair would likely fall below $0.06.
Disclaimer: These are the writer’s opinions and should not be considered investment advice. Readers should do their own research.