At the 61.8 percent Fibonacci Retracement level, the price of Bitcoin isn’t going as far as it should. This is causing a small dip in altcoins and taking some of the momentum out of this week’s first breakout to $45,000.
People are selling bitcoin (BTC) and stocks in the United States on Feb. 16 because they think Russia is building more troops near the Ukrainian border, which NATO says.
This is in contrast to Moscow’s claims that Russian troops will return to their permanent positions after the exercise is over. This geopolitical uncertainty could lead to more volatility in the short term.
However, the long-term fundamentals are still getting better. Most of the 123 financial institutions in Luxembourg have either started or plan to start their “crypto journey” soon, says a report from PwC Luxembourg.
JPMorgan has opened a virtual lounge in Decentraland’s Metajuku Mall. This is the first step into the metaverse, which the bank thinks will be worth $1 trillion to the bank.
Buffet, who has been very critical of Bitcoin until now, seems to be getting more excited about FinTech. Berkshire Hathaway’s security filing shows that the company has bought more shares of Nubank, the largest fintech bank in Brazil, and less of Visa and MasterCard stock.
Let’s look at the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to figure out what will happen in the next few days.
When Bitcoin hit the 20-day exponential moving average ($41,938) on Feb. 14, bulls tried to push the price to the $45,821 level, but they couldn’t get it there. This suggests that people at higher levels keep selling.
The moving averages have crossed in a positive direction, and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the positive zone, which means that people are feeling positive. The bulls are likely to buy when the price drops below the 20-day EMA.
Buyers want to push the price above the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders (H&S) pattern if it goes up from where it is now or comes back off the 20-day EMA, so that it goes above that level. If they do well, the bullish setup will be finished, which could signal a possible turn.
If the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, the BTC/USDT pair could fall to $39,600. This is not true. A break below this level could lead to even more selling, so the bulls need to keep this one.
Moving averages broke on Feb. 15, and the price of Ethereum (ETH) closed above them. The 50-day simple moving average is at $3,068. The bulls are having trouble keeping the price above that level, though. This shows that bears keep selling when the market goes up.
Sellers will now try to get the price to go below the moving averages again, so they can make more money. There is a strong support level at $2,652 for the ETH/USDT pair if they do well.
Instead, if the price rises above the moving averages, it will mean traders are buying when the market is going down. The bulls will try again to push the price above $3,283.66. A close above this level will finish an inverse H&S pattern, which will signal the start of a possible rise. Then, the pair could rise to $4,000.
When Binance Coin (BNB) broke through both the 20-day EMA and the downtrend line on Feb. 15, it rose above both of them. The bulls couldn’t get past the 50-day SMA ($434), though.
As long as the 50-day SMA isn’t breached, bears will try to push the price back below the 20-day EMA. That would be great if they could do that. The aggressive bulls might get trapped, and the BNB/USDT pair could fall to $390,60.
It will also be a good sign if the price rises above the 20-day EMA. This means that people are now more likely to buy when the price drops. That could make it more likely that the 50-day SMA breaks above the 50-day SMA. If that happens, the pair may start to rise to the $500 level.
For the past few days, Ripple (XRP) has been running into a lot of resistance at $0.85. This is where the price has been. This time, the bears want to push the price up to the break-out level at $0.75.
The moving averages have crossed in a positive direction, and the RSI is in the “bullish” zone, which means that the bulls have a small lead. There is a good chance that the buyers will fight hard to keep the 20-day EMA ($0.76).
In this case, if the price moves back above this level, bulls will try again to break through a barrier at $0.85. It could make the XRP/USDT pair rise to $0.91 and then to $1. If bears keep the price below $0.75, this positive view will be thrown out.
When Cardano (ADA) hit $1 on Feb. 14, it bounced back. On Feb. 15, it hit its 20-day EMA ($1.11) at $1.11. The bears aren’t willing to give up their lead, so they are fighting hard to keep this level.
It will be harder for sellers to try again to keep the price from going below the 20-day moving average. If it doesn’t, they will try again to keep the ADA/USDT pair from going below $1. People who keep going back to a support level tend to make it less strong. If the support breaks, the selling could get worse and the pair could fall to $0.80.
There are two ways this could happen. For example, if the price goes up from its current level of $1 and breaks above both moving averages, the pair could reach the resistance line of the channel. In order for the bulls to start a new trend, they will have to clear this obstacle.
In the last few days, Solana (SOL) has bounced back and reached the 20-day EMA ($105) on Feb. 15. The bulls are facing strong resistance from the bears, though, at this level. This shows that traders are still selling on rallies and that the mood is still bad.
RSI is below 43, which means that bears are in charge. As long as people are still trying to sell, the SOL/USDT pair could fall to a strong level of support at $80.83.
The bulls are likely to fight hard to keep this support in place, so it should be safe. It could stay between $80.83 and $116 for a few days if the price goes back up.
It could happen if the price rises from where it is now and breaks above the 20-day EMA. Then, the pair could move up to the resistance line of the channel, which is where it should stop. A break and close above the channel will show that the downtrend may be over. This will show that the downtrend may be over.
On Feb. 14, Avalanche (AVAX) jumped off the uptrend line and then surged to the downtrend line on Feb. 15, when it hit both lines. A long wick on the candlestick shows that bears are selling at higher prices. The bulls made the price go above the downtrend line today.
It looks like the moving averages are about to make a bullish crossover. The RSI is nearing 62, and it’s nearing the 62 area of resistance. There’s a good chance that bulls are in the lead.
It could go up to $117.53 if buyers keep the price above the downtrend line.
However, if the price turns down and breaks below the downtrend line, it could mean the breakout may have been a bear trap. The pair could then fall back to the moving averages. This could happen again. On a break and close below the uptrend line, the trend could change in favour of the bears.
Terra’s LUNA token broke and closed above the 20-day EMA ($56) on Feb. 15, but the bulls are having a hard time keeping the price above that level. In this way, it looks like bears are still selling on rallies.
The bears have pushed the price back below the 20-day EMA. They will now try to break the support at $54.20, which is where the price is now. If that happens, the LUNA/USDT pair could go down to $49.39 if that happens. The next place to go could be $43.44.
It could also go up again from $54.20, so the pair could start its relief rally to the downtrend line of its descending channel. The bulls will have to push and hold the price above this level to show that the downtrend may be over.
There is still a lot of selling at the 50-day SMA ($0.15), which is where Dogecoin broke and closed above the 20-day EMA on Feb. 15.
If you look at the RSI, it’s close to the middle, which means there’s a balance between supply and demand. As long as the price stays above the 50-day SMA, the DOGE/USDT pair could go up to $0.17. If the bulls can get past this obstacle, the pair could pick up speed and move up to $0.22.
Because if the price goes down from where it is now and drops to under $1, the pair could fall to the important support level of $0.12, which is at $1.13.
The long tail on Polkadot’s (DOT) Feb. 14 candlestick shows that bulls are buying on dips near the strong support level at $16.81, which is where the long tail starts. February 15 was a good day for the bulls because they reached the 20-day EMA ($20.16), but they couldn’t get over this level.
This means that the bears haven’t given up yet, and they’re putting up a strong fight in the area between the 20-day EMA and the down trend line. If the price keeps going down, the bears will try to push the DOT/USDT pair below $16.81 and start the downtrend again.
After $16.81, if the price comes back, the pair will try again to break through and reach $23.19. A break and a close above this level of resistance could mean that the trend could change.
The author’s views and opinions don’t always match those of Cointelegraph, and they don’t always agree with them. Every time you invest or trade, you take a chance. When you make a decision, you should do your own research first.
Disclaimer: These are the writer’s opinions and should not be considered investment advice. Readers should do their own research.