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Ethereum Classic: Does this $1000 projection hold water after Mystique

The long-anticipated Ethereum Classic hard fork Mystique has finally gone live, weeks after it was announced with considerable hoopla. It went live at block 14,525,000, as planned, with ETC Cooperative stating that “this is not a contentious hard-fork, but a standard protocol improvement.”

Node readiness was only 35% across the board at the end of last month. The total node readiness was estimated to be about 65.4 percent at the time of writing.

Compatibility is the main goal of the current hard fork. Mystique will make it possible to execute outstanding Ethereum London updates across the Ethereum Classic network. ECIP 1104 was the first proposal for the hard fork. Only parts or subsets of the London update have now been selectively enabled on the ETC Network using the same method.

This also goes along with what Afri Schoedon remarked a few days ago during a conference call:

“I think the most important feature of Ethereum Classic today is its protocol parity with other EVM networks. I would argue this is biggest benefit of using ETC today.”

The implementation of EIP-3529 (Alternative fund reduction) and EIP-3541 (Alternative fund reduction) is part of Mystique (Reject new contracts starting with the 0xEF byte). The EIPs for Fee market modification, BASEFEE opcode, and difficulty bomb delay, on the other hand, are not included. While the first two “contradict ETC’s fixed monetary policy,” the third is no longer valid.

Is Mystique going to save the day for ETC?

The issue on everyone’s mind now is: how did the hard fork effect the price of ETC? Is Mystique coming to the rescue of the Ethereum Classic market, which is on the verge of collapsing? In a nutshell, the answer is yes and no.

While ETC climbed over 5% on the charts in the hours leading up to the activation, it quickly dropped, with the altcoin unable to reverse its recent decline. It’s worth mentioning that during the 11th and 12th of February, ETC dropped by nearly 15% on the price charts.

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However, the aforementioned findings only explain half of the storey. In reality, while ETC was among the top-25 cryptos last year, it has plummeted to 37th at the time of publication.

Despite this, many people in the community are optimistic. Ethereum Classic, for example, is “certainly a top-10 blockchain,” according to Donald McIntyre of Etherplan. In fact, he asserted in an interview last year that their rankings were an exception rather than the rule.

ETC at $1000, thanks BTC?

Furthermore, many in the ETC community aren’t just optimistic about market rankings. McIntyre, for example, is sticking to his $1000 estimate for Ethereum Classic, which he made last year. His prediction that ETC will reach the aforementioned level was based on the present market cycle and Bitcoin’s market valuation in comparison to Gold’s market valuation by the end of 2021 and 2025, respectively.

The expert predicted at the time that due to ETC’s base layer growth alongside Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency would be worth 5% of BTC’s value by the end of 2021. He forecasted that by the end of 2021, the world’s largest cryptocurrency would be worth more than $125K, propelling ETC over $1000.

Needless to say, none of this came to pass. Bitcoin reached a fresh all-time high of almost $69,000 before crashing to just above $40,000 on the charts. Ethereum Classic never made it over $175, much less $1000, and was only worth $32 at press time.

What does this mean for the previously mentioned projections? McIntyre, for one, is optimistic, stating that external factors such as the macroeconomic crisis and COVID-19 have simply pushed the “second leg of the crypto bull cycle” to 2022.

A projection too far?

Is there anything, however, that supports, or at the very least, suggests, such a rise in ETC’s value? Most likely not.

ETC’s volumes, for example, have dropped considerably from their peak in the summer of 2021, according to Santiment. The price of ETC has depreciated as a result of a drop in the same. The exception was the previous 72-hour period, during which ETC lost over 15% of its value. Its social dominance metrics are also not comparable to what they were in May and June.

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Finally, while ETC’s development activity has increased recently, it is still much below the levels witnessed last summer.

With Bitcoin trading sideways on the charts and most analysts lowering their 2022 estimates to a target considerably lower than $100,000, Ethereum Classic appears to be doomed in the immediate term. But, on the other hand, can we really state that with certainty? This is, after all, the crypto-market.

Disclaimer: These are the writer’s opinions and should not be considered investment advice. Readers should do their own research.

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