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Can the price of XRP hit $1 after a 25% spike in a week? Keep an eye on this crucial support level

However, if a fractal from 2018-2019 comes back, it could be bad news for XRP’s long-term upside prospects.

When the price of XRP fell by more than 70% between April 2021 and January 2022, it started to come back.

Because the XRP/USD 50-week EMA is important.

As of Feb. 13, the price of XRP/USD was as high as $0.916, above its 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA, which is red). The upside move, even though it wasn’t very strong, opened up the possibility for more bullish momentum. This is because there has been a lot of buying around the wave in the past.

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The 50-week EMA, for example, had been turned into resistance more than a year earlier. In the week ending July 27, 2020, traders were able to get the wave back as support. Before: In April 2021, the price of XRP rose by more than 820 percent to $1.98. This was its best level in more than three years.

During the bearish cycles between 2018 and 2020, XRP’s 50-week EMA was a strong support level on many occasions. That shows that the wave can withstand bullish recovery sentiments, like the one we saw during the price rebound.

Can XRP retake $1?

As long as XRP holds strongly above its 50-week EMA, it could make $1 in the next few days.

The level, which is about 25% above where the price is now, is one of XRP’s two main resistance points. One is the long-term downward trendline that has been stopping the token’s rise since April 2021.

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While the second target is the 0.382 Fib line of the Fibonacci retracement level that was drawn between XRP’s high of $2.70 and its low of $0.10, which has been known to act as both support and resistance for XRP’s strong moves by being both support and resistance.

$1 still doesn’t promise to get XRP out of its correction bias, but it’s still a low high. Instead, it could give traders a chance to protect their short-term gains, which could lead to a drop in the price of XRP toward a support level near $0.71, as shown on the Fibonacci retracement graph.

The bears’ case

However, if XRP doesn’t close above the 50-week EMA, it could look for a pullback to its 200-week EMA (the blue wave) at around $0.54.

Putting the price in a range with the 50-week EMA as resistance and the 200-week EMA as support could keep it there for a long time, which could lead to a new break down to the downside. The bearish outlook comes from a fractal that runs from June 2018 to June 2019. The chart below shows this.

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For example, when XRP went up to $3.55 in January 2018, its weekly relative strength index (RSI) made a lower high, which means there was a “bearish divergence,” as shown in this graph.

Later, the price fell below its 50-week EMA, but it got help from its 200-week EMA. The RSI’s fall also came to an end near 37, just above its oversold level of 30.

As long as the moving average range was inside, XRP moved around. The RSI didn’t change its reading above 37, though. It didn’t stop there. In June 2019, the price broke below the 200-day moving average support, extending its fall to as low as $0.10 by next March 2020.

If the fractal looks like it did in 2018 and 2019, XRP could break below its 200-week EMA support near $0.54 in the next few days. It could move XRP’s short-term target to the Fibonacci retracement graph’s 0.786 Fib line near $0.43, which is where XRP’s short-term target is based on the swing low to the high.

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A break below $0.43 would put the next target at $0.22, which has seen a lot of trading in the past.

Disclaimer: These are the writer’s opinions and should not be considered investment advice. Readers should do their own research.

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