It looks like the Russian central bank is going to put more restrictions on its citizens’ money, like a ban on people using rubles to buy the US dollar.
Bitcoin (BTC) has lost about 30 percent of its value since March 9, when it was worth 5.8 million rubles a piece. Because of this, traders may be able to dump more of the Russian national currency if a typical bullish continuation pattern emerges.
Bitcoin heads towards 11 million rubles
It’s called the “ascending triangle,” and it’s when the price is stable between a rising lower trendline (support) and a flat upper trendline (resistance). In this case, it ends when the price breaks out of the consolidation range and moves in the direction of its previous trend, looking for levels that are at least as long as the triangle’s upper and lower trendlines.
As shown in the chart below, BTC’s price against the ruble has been moving in the same way since January 2021. In the end, it closed above the triangle’s upper trendline, rising more than 20% to a record high of 5.88 million rubles.
However, BTC retraced to try to use the range’s resistance as support, which is a common sight after a breakout because traders want to see more gains.
If this is the case, it looks like the chances of rebounding and going up to 11 million rubles in the future are very good. This would be an almost 140% rise.
Russia’s capital controls
Technically, the BTC/RUB market looks like it’s going to go up. This comes at the same time as a lot of Russian assets have been leaving the country since Russia invaded Ukraine, and Western countries have worked together to damage the country’s ties with the global banking system.
It’s because of this that the Moscow Exchange has put a stop to trading on Feb. 28 until further notice. Shares of Russian-owned businesses around the world have also lost money, with an MSCI index tracking their exchange-traded funds reporting a nearly 78% drop since the invasion began on February 24.
As of March 7, the ruble had lost more than 50% of its value against the U.S. dollar this year. This was the biggest drop since Russia defaulted on its debt in 1998. Russia’s central bank took a series of steps to control the flow of money, including a ban on foreign currency sales for six months.
Disclaimer: These are the writer’s opinions and should not be considered investment advice. Readers should do their own research.