Bitcoin’s next 10X price explosion is predicted to happen in two years, according to historical evidence, but analyst Peter Brandt is sceptical.
According to new research, Bitcoin (BTC) may continue to trade sideways for another two years before resuming its bull run. Veteran trader Peter Brandt noted historical tendencies in a tweet on April 6, implying that hodlers will have to wait until 2024 for their next moonshot.
Eight months down, twenty-five to go?
Bitcoin’s performance over the last year has disappointed observers, with the highly anticipated “blow-off” top in Q4 2021 coming in far lower than projected. The debate concerning the relationship between price and Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycles shifted after BTC/USD lost roughly 50% of those modest new all-time highs.
The market had grown accustomed to a macro price peak occurring once every four years, notably the year following each of Bitcoin’s block subsidy halving occurrences. Price action is now less predictable, and while the reasons influencing it are numerous and varied, this does not necessarily suggest that bulls will catch a break at a later stage in the present cycle.
According to Brandt’s statistics, the next Bitcoin impulse wave may not occur until May 2024, which coincides almost exactly with the next block subsidy halving. Based on historical patterns that go beyond halving cycles, this would be a year too early for a blow-off peak, but it might still provide a 10X price gain. “The last two times BTC advanced 10X or more, the next stage of the rocket took an average of 33 months to kick in,” Brandt noted.
“If history repeats itself (which I doubt), the next rocket stage will be launched in May 2024,” says the author.
At a time, one step at a time
Analysts have overwhelmingly pointed the finger at macro events as a factor that might keep Bitcoin depressed till then. If effective, central bank tightening will put downward pressure on risk assets, while a protracted period of high inflation and low interest rates will also put downward pressure on Bitcoin — at least in the short run.
Once the immediate shock of these occurrences wears off, the status quo could shift. Both Arthur Hayes, the ex-CEO of BitMEX, and Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone are far more optimistic about Bitcoin in the long term than in the short term.
“BTC is a low-risk sanctuary. Gold is a risk-free investment. This year will be the first true market test of Bitcoin as a theoretical safehaven “Willy Woo, a statistician, predicted the outlook for 2022 in February.
“In a wartime scenario, risk aversion is the initial market reaction, followed by a flight to safety.”
Disclaimer: These are the writer’s opinions and should not be considered investment advice. Readers should do their own research.
