There is no indication of a substantial shift up or down for the BTC price, but volume data suggests that the bottom may occur within weeks.
Bitcoin (BTC) failed to recoup recent losses as traders anticipated a continuation of lacklustre price activity on July 2.
“Decline acceleration” is still in effect.
On the eve of the weekend, TradingView data indicated that the BTC/USD pair fluctuated around the $19,000 threshold.
The trading week on Wall Street had concluded without any surprises, with U.S. equities essentially unchanged – offering no motivation for cryptocurrency volatility. Fresh off a retest of twenty-year highs, the U.S. dollar index, or DXY, ran out of steam to circle 105 points.
Order book data from the world’s largest exchange Binance displayed BTC/USD trapped between buy and sell liquidity close to the spot price, ensuring a lack of volatility until traders shifted positions or dramatically increased bids or asks.
As one zoomed out, the prospects for bulls did not appear any more optimistic.
According to the well-known trading account Altcoin Sherpa, Bitcoin’s uninspired performance is expected to endure for the majority of 2022.
“Once the bottom is located, it will take months to cut about and accumulate,” it told its Twitter followers.
“The bottom may not even arrive until a few months from now. I believe a prolonged bear market is imminent.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital concurred, arguing that Bitcoin has not yet reached new macro lows or begun to consolidate.
#BTC may still very well be in the “Downtrend Acceleration” phase of its correction
But this phase will precede the “Multi-Month Consolidation” phase
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) July 1, 2022
“Deleverage yourself. Put your Bitcoin in a cold wallet. Checkmate, the chief on-chain expert at the research firm Glassnode, advised caution.
Will 2018 repeat all-time volume peaks?
In the meantime, the next week or two might be the cycle’s lows, giving hope to those who are anxious that the bottom is still months away.
Alex Krueger, an economist, trader, and entrepreneur, noticed in a Twitter thread that BTC volume reached all-time highs last month.
“Generally speaking, trading volume is at its peak when markets succumb,” he stated.
As a general rule, trading volume is the highest when markets capitulate, and such capitulation creates major bottoms.
This weekly chart includes the aggregated bitcoin volume for most BTC pairs (spot & perpetuals across exchanges).
Volume hit its all time high two weeks ago. pic.twitter.com/6ONLibQiL2
— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) July 2, 2022
In the 2018 bear market, he added, the volume all-time high occurred several weeks before the price bottom, and if this year’s bear market follows the same pattern, the next might occur in July.
Previously, Rekt Capital had suggested that buy-side volume was insufficient to sustain long-term price appreciation, while also citing 2018 volume movements.
Disclaimer: These are the writer’s opinions and should not be considered investment advice. Readers should do their own research.